(Durham, NH) – With the election tomorrow, former Vice President Joe Biden holds a 12-point lead in the national polls against President Donald Trump. In New Hampshire, Biden currently leads Trump by eight points, according to a poll released by the University of New Hampshire (UNH) Survey Center.
Based on polling done by the aforementioned pollsters and Real Clear Politics, who had 2016 Democratic candidate for president Hillary Clinton up by 3.3 points nationally the day before Election Day and now have former VP Biden up by 6.8 points with one day to go, voters should not be expecting a repeat of 2016.
But UNH professor of political science Andrew Smith says that although it may not be a repeat, there are still some ambiguities about the 2020 race. In a year where racial issues and tensions have heightened, and the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has ravaged through the country, he is not ruling out anything.
“It is interesting that only about 1% of the New Hampshire population is still undecided. It does not indicate that it is over, because the biggest problem in predicting elections is figuring out who is going to show up,” said Smith.
There is no way to judge exactly who is going to show up and who they are showing up for until after the election is over of course, but early numbers show 93 million plus absentee and mail in ballots have already been cast, with at least 182,000 of those coming from New Hampshire.
According to a poll done by the PEW Research Center, about 78% of all voters consider the economy the most important factor in their decision, with 66% of Biden voters and 84% of Trump supporters listing the economy as their number one concern.
The pandemic placed fourth among all issues, with 55% of voters considering it very important to their choice come Nov. 3. But there is a glaring difference between Trump and Biden voters: 24% of those who plan on voting for Trump say the pandemic is very important, opposed to 82% of Biden voters.
“There is some evidence from 2016 and this year that likely Trump voters are less willing to complete surveys, so there is concern among the Biden camp that the race is closer than that 12% point that we’re seeing.”
On Nov. 3, polls will be open from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m. at Oyster River High School in Durham.